Iowa State Championship Pre-Game Rundown.

Alright, I got in 71 miles yesterday, only 'entry-level' cramping, so I have decided to race it up this Saturday at the State Champs in West Branch, Iowa, (Cat 1,2,3, 108miles). So, let's have some fun marking wheels in the Cat 3 race... (NOTE: I don't claim to be Paul Sherwyn, Bob Roll, or Phil Ligget, and don't always know fellow riders by name only face, so these will basically just be the riders who I know by name and face. No offense to the countless number of riders who I didn't mention and may be just as worthy if not more so, than those called out below)

First, let's quickly look at last years event (80 rolling miles) to see if we can get any insight into how this year's will be...

Total competitors equals: 23. (not as large as you may have thought)
Total finishers: 15
Cat 3 winner (and overall)...
Nate Moenck... Not marked because he isn't in Iowa this year.
Next placed current Cat 3....
Ian Robinson... Yes, finishing 8th is a good result in a tough race. Races for HBA. If his form is comparable then no reason why he wouldn't be able to place well.
Top Placed in the Cat 4 race who is now a Cat 3...
William Greenwood... He rides for Bikes To You, probably enough said, I would recommend keeping a close eye on all of these guys because they are on a mission to dominate, and taking home a couple of medals is going to be a part of the plan. He rode in Superweek and has won a couple of Iowa Road Races as a Cat 3 this year.

This event was held in Dubuque, so a discouraging drive for many west Iowans. And, wasn't put on by the much larger ICCC team. Also not nearly the pre-race hype, so I would expect many more than 23 in this year's race. (I predict around 40, maybe 50, with just under half being Cat 3's)

2008 CAT 3 SHOWDOWN...

There will be many teams here with multiple competitors so team tactics will be in play, namely:
Bikes To You, ICCC, Atlas, HBA (East Coast)
All Nine Yards, Rasmussen's, DMOS (West Coast)
Some of the teams will have riders who aren't feeling like they can win, so they will sacrifice themselves by launching attacks and/or setting a high tempo, leaving the other teams to chase them down, saving their 'team captain(s)' for the last lap.

For B2U, I feel that Bryan Moritz is going to be the main threat. Winning at Superweek, winning the Iowa Cup, rocking at Snake Alley, gold in Team Time Trial... the list goes on. He may even opt to be a Cat 2 after this season, and actually might be a candidate for the overall, especially if he works something out with Cat 1/2 Iowa Cup winner Sean Walker (my pick to win the 1/2 race).
Thinking about it Andrew Fagersten, Finn, Will and Chris Hansen, also on the B2U, could easily win, but more imporantly will be able to be key contributors to the team's overall success.

For ICCC, I don't specifically know who many of their Cat 3's are, so I will just ackowledge Adam Price. This guy is always a strong rider, with a huge motor. Maybe he isn't as strong at flat Crits, so you may have thought he is no longer a factor... nope he is... he has been secretly crafting a late season fitness peak. He dominated the Cat 4's last season early to get his upgrade, and is anxious to make his mark as a Cat 3. I just remembered Jimmie Corrico. He is great on the hills and was dominant as a Cat 4 this year. ICCC will be well represented at the Cat 3 level.

For Atlas, again I don't know who all of their Cat 3's are, so no offense intended because I know I am overlooking some of their strong Cat 3's. However, Ryan Jacobsen comes to mind. Atlas is a strong team, so he will have support. His biggest strength is that he often frequents the Tues/Thurs Iowa City training rides that are pleasantly infested with Cat 1/2 and 3's. These rides make you strong and smart. Also, of note, they actually do training rides on this course, so will be familiar with the layout and good places to attack/recover, etc. Dominic Moraniec is on Atlas, but might enter the Masters Race. If he lines up with us, however, watch out, because he is very skillful.

For HBA, Carson Christian. This guy is hungry and confident. He has traveled to wisconsin and ohio valley to race at the Cat 3 level and get the experience he needed to be a threat at this level. He won the Cat 4 Snake Alley race this year (always at the top in every other cat 4 race) and just pulled off a victory at a Two Bee event as a Cat 3. Also coached by Paul Deninger, a sign of his dedication, and of note because he will be going into this race with a strategy.

For All Nine Yards, Steven Robinson. He was a threat in the Iowa Cup and has won as a Cat 3.

For Rasmussen's, Pete Basso. Well, he found a passion in Time Trialing in the middle of the season, so you know he has been getting in extra mileage having this new discipline to prepare for. Plus, he is on 'the death squad'... With a team name like that you have to expect trouble.

Lot's of other riders will be entering without the team support, and they can take advantage of the team wars, possibly, by sitting-in and/or following wheels at times when others will be obligated to chase. This just depends upon how the breakaways pan out. There will also be out-of-state riders, who aren't eligible for medals, but probably wouldn't have made the drive if they didn't think they had a shot at some of the cash.

My team mate Bill Ford is thinking about entering the Cat 3 race (he may opt to do the Masters instead). He claims to have earned around 38 points in a 12 month period as a cat 4 (only 20 needed to upgrade), so he is definately worthy of being categorized at this skill level. He actually won a 200 mile race, and is a strong mileage junkie and fierce competitor, so these distances actually suit him. Just as we may be thinking about pulling off in exhaustion, he may be just getting warmed up.

As for me... don't bother marking me, I will be sitting at the back so I can craft a good blog entry on sunday. If I do end up with a gap, here is my request.... Can one rider from B2U, ICCC, and Atlas come with me? Then, if you don't mind, I will sit in the draft as you three rotate through. Obviously, your teamates will block, so you won't even really have to work that hard. We may have to slow down, actually, if I start cramping, but no worries, I will hang on. Then as I cross the finish line as the first Cat 3, I will disclose that I have been sandbagging on my blog for the entire week and actually am in the best shape ever... or am I? (insert sinister laugh here)

I realize this rundown has yet to acknowledge an obvious situation... the cat 1/2's are racing at the same time for the same money. Ok, definately complicates things. My prediction, in general is that the Cat 1/2's tactics will create many chase groups early, as they will be trying to shed the field down to a more workable number, and 'weeding out' some of the Cat 3's, so they can focus on their true rivals.

I would hope that the first 27 mile lap would be somewhat neutral, in that everyone respects the true energy/hydration demands of racing for 108 miles. I, imagine, though, that a handful of people will get a gap by the end of the first lap. Then, just like in 'European' racing, the peloton will slowly reel them in, and their race will basically be over. Then attack after attack. Each one getting 'caught' but shedding riders one by one who couldn't bridge. Many of us will be in 'no man's land' by the 4th lap. Too tired to catch the group ahead, rather forced to wait for the group behind, or fake a flat tire, so they can DNF without losing face.